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ECONOMIC RECESSION IN CANADA: IS CANADA’S ECONOMY HEADED FOR AN INTENSE RECESSION?

economic recession in canada
economic recession in canada

economic recession in canada

Economic recession in Canada: In Canada, the economy is under pressure

The economy in Canada is under pressure as the country deals with the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic has hit Canada hard. On one hand, certain Canadian businesses have shut down and people losing their jobs. On the other, there are job openings for other Canadian businesses. In August 2022, the unemployment rate in Canada increased from its record low in June and July, to 5.4%. The Canadian government has been working on trying to mitigate the damage and create supportable economic growth, but the economy is still struggling. The economic news is not good.

Coming out of the COVID economy there are many forces around the world causing global inflation. Supply chain shortages and the war in Ukraine are but two such global forces. Canada is experiencing inflationary pressures like every other country. Chief economists have mixed views on whether there will be an economic recession in Canada.

In response to the new global inflationary pressures, the Bank of Canada, like many other central banks, is raising its key interest rate regularly and significantly. The Bank of Canada is using its old domestic inflation policy rate fighting tools to fight these new pressures. It has promised more aggressive interest rate hikes. The federal government supports these rate hikes. Prime Minister Trudeau and his deputy chief, our Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland have said so.

As a result, the pressure on the economy is evident in the housing market. Home sales have dropped sharply, and house prices are also starting to fall. Notwithstanding the Bank of Canada’s key interest policy rate was designed to calm down a frothy real estate market, it is also a worry for the Canadian economy, as the housing market has been one of the bright spots in recent years.

The Bank of Canada’s inflation-fighting key interest rate policy tool has the potential not only to reduce inflation but if not closely managed, could throw us into a Canadian recession. We see financial markets, especially the stock markets, reacting negatively to this possibility.

Craig Wright, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist of Royal Bank of Canada believes Canada is headed for a recession, but that it will be a moderate one. So the ultimate question Canadians are asking is there a potential recession on the horizon or, how likely is an economic recession in Canada?

Economic recession in Canada: Bank of Canada believes that higher rates are essential to controlling inflation expectations

Higher interest rates ultimately force a contraction of the Canadian economy and an overall economic decline. The Bank of Canada really only has this one tool if it is going to act. Inflation is strong and is affecting longer-run business and consumer expectations. If inflation expectations rise, they can become self-fulfilling.

If inflation rates stay high, it can have very troubling economic impacts. Businesses will start charging more for their products. For things we need, we would have to pay more and would probably start asking for higher salaries and wages. If Canadians think inflation will go way past the Bank of Canada’s target, it could cause big problems with greater interest-rate hikes.

Both the US Fed and the Bank of Canada are increasing interest rates in an effort to control inflation. And neither bank is finished yet. The U.S. Fed and the Bank of Canada are expected to raise rates through to the end of 2022. That’s high enough to significantly restrict growth.

economic recession in canada
economic recession in canada

Economic recession in Canada: Although rates will eventually go down, they will not do so until inflation has cooled off

Although oil prices have been settling down and therefore prices at the pumps are falling, food and other consumer goods continue to have steady price increases. Continued increases eventually get to the point where they are unsustainable. Inflation won’t slow down until demand falls. Central banks will not ease interest rates until demand falls off sufficiently to reverse the current inflationary trends. If global economies cool off, it will help temper inflation.

Although labour shortages are preventing some expansion, many markets are still growing. However, disruptions from the pandemic continue to make it difficult for China to expand. Slowing growth abroad may have some negative effects on the US and Canadian economies as well.

The Bank of Canada will have to work very hard to find the right balance of interest rate hikes to cool inflation without causing an economic crisis or a recession.

Are we heading towards an economic recession in Canada and what can you do to help yourself?

I don’t know if the Bank of Canada’s current inflation-fighting efforts will force an economic recession in Canada, but Canadians have good reason to be concerned.

If you’re concerned about a recession in the near future, it’s important to be more mindful of your finances and think carefully about whether you can afford major purchases. What would happen if you were to lose your job or have an unexpected expense arise? It’s best to be prepared by carefully evaluating your savings and emergency fund now.

Your employment situation, savings, as well as spending practices can all contribute to how well you weather an economic downturn. Consequently, it is prudent to be prepared for bumpy rides by having a savings cushion and being mindful of living within your means. Additionally, those who are dissatisfied with their current employment or earnings may currently want to check out other opportunities prior to the Canadian economic situation worsening.

Douglas Porter, the Bank of Montreal chief economist, explains that how much Canadians feel the slowdown in the Canadian economy will depend on their individual circumstances. This includes what sector they’re employed in and whether they’re a borrower or saver.

One of the risks of a recession is the possibility of inflation eroding purchasing power and cementing in lower real wages. This is why it’s important to think carefully about asking for a raise now before a recession hits. Anyone considering a large purchase, like buying a home, must look at affordability.

Not only can you get the necessary financing to make the purchase, but can you afford the monthly payments? If you believe a recession is inevitable, then you should hold off making that real estate purchase because home prices inevitably will fall further in a recession.

economic recession in canada
economic recession in canada

What are 8 things you can do to prepare for an economic recession in Canada?

There are certain things Canadians can do to protect against an oncoming recession. It is not easy. It takes planning, belt-tightening and behaviour modification. Some possible steps include:

  1. Begin creating a household budget as soon as possible. This will help you to keep track of your income and expenses and help you make responsible financial decisions to not spend more than your household earns. Do not forget to use your family net income after accounting for income tax as your top income line.
  2. Now that you have your budget prepared, make sure you’re mindful of your spending and cut back where you can. Your budget needs to not only be break-even but there also needs to be a line for monthly savings.
  3. Credit cards can be useful when used properly. However, if you are using credit cards as a means to provide you with income that you do not earn, and increasing your credit card debt each month, this must stop. Lock your credit cards away, reduce your spending and eliminate your credit card debt.
  4. If you want to save money, you’ll have to cut back on eating out. Try to be mindful of how often you’re doing it, and you may be surprised at how much money you can save.
  5. Cutting back on your entertainment expenses is another way to reduce your spending. That means fewer nights out at the movies or out to eat, and maybe even skipping or cutting back on your various cable and streaming subscription services. It’s not going to be easy, but if you’re serious about saving money, it’s a necessary step.
  6. Take a critical look at your cell phone plan. Maybe there is a good deal on a more economical cell phone plan available. It is tough in Canada to do so because of the concentration of power by having so few Canadian providers, but that does not mean that you should not try.
  7. Do not incur new debt.
  8. Keep saving.

What if the economy in Canada is expected to experience a recession in the near future and you cannot hang on anymore?

We’re getting increasingly more telephone calls from people who state they or their companies have been hit hard by the pandemic, and they don’t see an escape. They applied for and received CERB payments. They really believed they qualified, and now the Canada Revenue Agency is reassessing their eligibility and demanding the money back.

We are getting calls from entrepreneurs. Their companies received CEBA loans but were unable to survive — their businesses had to close their doors even before an economic recession in Canada hit.

People are worried about what to do. These calls are coming daily. They are looking for answers to how they can bail themselves out of COVID-induced financial troubles, especially if there will be an economic recession in Canada.

Are you or your company in need of financial restructuring? Are you or your company insolvent due to a contract you may have entered into? Can you or your business not able to afford to make all your necessary debt payments, including mortgage payments?

The financial restructuring process is complex. The Ira Smith Team understands how to do a complex restructuring. However, more importantly, we understand the needs of the entrepreneur or the person who has too much personal debt. You are worried because you are facing significant financial challenges.

It is not your fault that you are in this situation. You have been only shown the old ways that do not work anymore. The Ira Smith Team uses new modern ways to get you out of your debt troubles while avoiding bankruptcy. We can get you debt relief freedom.

The stress placed upon you is huge. We understand your pain points. We look at your entire situation and devise a strategy that is as unique as you and your problems; financial and emotional. We know that we can help you the way we take the load off of your shoulders and devise a debt settlement plan.

We realize that people and businesses in financial difficulty need practical advice and a workable solution in an easy-to-understand financial plan. The Ira Smith Team knows that not everyone has to file for bankruptcy in Canada. Most of our clients never do, as we are familiar with alternatives to bankruptcy. We assist many people in finding the relief they need.

Call or email us. We can tailor a new debt restructuring procedure specifically for you, based on your unique economic situation and needs. If any of this sounds familiar to you and you’re serious about finding a solution, let us know. We will get you back to living a happy life, whether or not there is an economic recession in Canada.

Call us now for a no-cost initial consultation.

economic recession in canada
economic recession in canada
Categories
Brandon Blog Post

IS CANADA IN RECESSION? MOST CANADIANS SAY YES TO AN INTENSE RECESSION

Is Canada in recession?

Statistics Canada recently released data showing that inflation rose to 7.7% year-on-year in May, up from 6.8% in April. This was the highest reading since January 1983 and well above the 7.3% expected by economists. The inflation index rose 1.4% from the previous month, with gasoline prices, hotel prices and car prices being the main reasons for the rise in May.

Many economists believe core measures are a better indicator of underlying price pressures, as it excludes food and energy costs. The recent average of this measurement, according to Statistics Canada, increased to 4.73% which is the highest level in the last 32 years! The worst news, their inflation expectations are not stopping.

In this Brandon’s Blog, I discuss is Canada in recession and look at what effect it might have on Canadians.

Is Canada in recession? What is a recession?

In the most basic terms, a recession is not only when economic growth is curtailed but is a period of economic decline marked by a contraction in economic activity. Most governments define a recession as two straight quarters in which the economy contracts by at least 1.5 percent. Economists define it as negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth. This definition doesn’t take into account consumer sentiment, but that’s an important metric to pay attention to since it affects consumer spending.

Fears of a recession have been rising in recent weeks as central banks around the world try to bring inflation down from the highest in decades by raising interest rates quickly. A new poll finds that nearly 8 in 10 Canadians believe the Canadian economy is in or near a recession. More than half of those Canadians are starting to cut back on spending to cope with the recession.

According to a recent survey of 1,517 Canadians by Yahoo and pollster Maru Public Opinion, a whopping 78 percent of respondents believe Canada is now in a recession or approaching a recession. Of those, 23% believe Canada will enter a recession within the next three months, while as many as 55% believe the Canadian economy is now in a recession.

is canada in recession
is canada in recession

Is Canada in recession right now? What the economists say

Canadian economists were surveyed by Finder on their inflation and economic recession expectations. Most said Canada has recession risk and is heading for a recession. They say we can expect it to happen anytime between 2023 and the first half of 2024. Most thought it would happen in the first six months of 2023, another quarter thought it would take a year to manifest. Economists have pointed to the pandemic, inflation and interest rate hikes as the reasons for the recession in Canada (isn’t the hot money only flowing into the housing market the reason for the recession?).

Finder explains how economists try to time recessions. Canada is headed for a normal summer as pandemic restrictions are lifted, but a new variant of the COVID-19 pandemic could emerge in the fall that could tip us into a Canadian recession by this time next year. What they cannot tell us is whether it will be a mild recession or a deep recession.

Why Is Canada likely to experience a recession?

In a single word – inflation. Inflation is rising and our federal government is doing nothing to quell the inflation expectations. This is causing the Bank of Canada to try to tame inflation by raising interest rates. This increases the risk of a recession. In fact, many economists told Finder they expect “aggressive” rate hikes in the coming year. Most of those polled believe there will be at least four more rate hikes this year.

Fears of a recession have been rising in recent weeks as central banks around the world try to bring inflation down from the highest in decades by raising interest rates quickly. The Bank of Canada is one of the central banks trying to restore soaring inflation to its target range of 1% to 3%. On June 1, the Bank of Canada announced a rate hike of 0.5%.

The timing of the recession is not easy to grasp, and much depends on what happens with Russia’s invading Ukraine. Murshed Chowdhury, an associate professor at the University of New Brunswick, expects the recession to continue into the first half of 2024. How long the supply-side problems will last and the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war will play a big role in deciding how things turn out.

The rise in prices causing inflation can be attributed to a number of factors, including poor fiscal management by the federal government. Other factors include record highs in commodity prices such as oil and wheat. Unfortunately, wage growth for most Canadians has not kept pace with inflation. Wages have risen 2.7% over the past two years, compared with inflation of 3.4% over the same period.

is canada in recession
is canada in recession

Is Canada in recession? What will happen to the economy of Canada?

Consumer prices in Canada accelerated to their highest level in 40 years, Bloomberg reported, adding pressure on the Bank of Canada to continue aggressively raising interest rates in the coming weeks.

Markets are almost entirely confident that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by 75 basis points next month, which will lift its policy rate to 2.25%. The rate is expected to be as high as 3.50% by the end of the year. The preferential loan interest rate offered by commercial banks is usually more than 2 percentage points higher than the policy interest rate.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has also come under pressure from opposition parties and economists to do more to contain inflationary pressures and help households offset the cost of living, though the Trudeau government has been wary of any new measures.

Like other countries, Canadian households have been hit by record gasoline prices and soaring food prices. After a slight pullback in April, gasoline prices surged again in May, rising 12% for the month and 48% from a year earlier. Food prices rose by a smaller 0.8% in May but were up 8.8% from a year earlier.

Given that gasoline prices rose further in June, the 7.7% annual figure may not even be representative of the peak annual price increase. There were more signs that imported inflation was affecting domestic prices, with the cost of services rising 5.2 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace of growth since 1991.

The cost of living is rising twice as fast as the average Canadian wage, creating significant headwinds for the economy. Unfortunately, the Canadian government and the Bank of Canada are treating this as if inflation is all caused by domestic factors when it is really global. Raising interest rates aggressively, an old tool, cannot solve a globally induced imported inflation spike.

The inflation we are experiencing now is a result of all the shocks to the Canadian economy: COVID-19, monetary policy-induced recession factors when the Bank of Canada kept interest rates at their lowest ever levels during the COVID-19 pandemic, the supply side problems because every major world economy effectively shut down for the better part of 2 years, the war in Ukraine causing shortages and therefore price spikes. None of it is a Made In Canada problem, yet the Bank of Canada and the federal government are treating it as if it was homegrown.

Is Canada in recession? What happens if we experience a recession?

Canadians’ purchasing behaviour is already beginning to change. A poll conducted by Nanos Research for Bloomberg News indicates:

  • 52% of Canadians surveyed say they have adjusted their spending habits, set stricter priorities and started consciously spending less in the past month.
  • The majority of Canadians expressed concern about the state of the economy, with 62 percent of Canadians believing that the Canadian economy was on the wrong track.
  • Rising prices have led 32 percent of Canadians to believe they are in a worse financial position than they were the previous month. Only 8 percent of Canadians said their situation had improved.
  • Regionally, the poll showed that residents of Atlantic Canada and Western Canada are particularly concerned about the economy.
  • In the Atlantic region, 75% of respondents believe the Canadian economy is heading in the wrong direction; in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 77%; in Alberta, 66% of people hold this view.
  • 41 percent of Canadians said they were in a worse financial position today than they were last year. This is the second-highest reading since 2008.

This consumer sentiment, runaway inflation and the Bank of Canada and the federal government using old tools to fix a new problem will have negative consequences for Canadian businesses. Consumer spending which previously fueled the Canadian economy, now reduced consumer spending, this will most likely place is Canada in recession.

Lower company sales will lead to job losses and our record low unemployment rate will increase possibly to a new high when the current job market changes for the worst during a recession. Business investment will be reduced and what investment is made, will be more in systems and technology than people. There will be a resultant drop in GDP. Certain asset categories will drop dramatically in price as capital flees places like the Canadian stock market for investments seen to be safer.

is canada in recession
is canada in recession

Is Canada in recession? How to protect yourself from a recession

Our spending and investing habits directly impact the economy. This year so far, it’s been a rough ride. However, the majority of how a recession affects us is within each of our own control. The rest of it, the minority is because of forces beyond our control.

The economy will vary from year to year. Our spending, saving and investing habits directly impact the economy. It is important for all of us to make smart financial decisions now so we can weather the storm when the economy dips. Is Canada in recession? Based on the above, not right now, but, it could be soon. Here are my tips on how to protect yourself from a recession.

It’s important to have an emergency fund

When a recession hits, you can get fired and the value of your investments can plummet. One of the best ways to protect yourself from financial distress or additional debt is to increase your emergency savings.

That way, even if there are unexpected expenses, or your income is affected, you’ll have a cushion to protect yourself and your family. I always recommend having an emergency fund that allows you to survive for a 6-month period.

Boost your employment prospects

When a recession hits, job security can be at risk. To safeguard your income, you should consider finding a side hustle in addition to your regular job. This can serve two key purposes—helping you grow your emergency fund and providing you with extra income.

You should focus on developing job skills that will help improve your chances of not being laid off. Time management, communication, and attention to detail are all important skills to focus on.

Budgeting

Look at your family household expenses. Cut back on anything that is not necessary spending. If necessary, use cash to pay for purchases and not a credit card. We tend to spend less when we have to count it out in cash rather than tapping or swiping a card.

That way your money will go much further. Remember, during a recession, cash is king!

Pay down debt

Do everything you can to pay down your debt before a recession hits. The more debt you have, the more of your money goes to interest payments. If you have variable rate loan debt, as the Bank of Canada continues to crank up interest rates, the cost of that debt increases.

If you have fixed-rate debt and it comes up for renewal time, say like your house mortgage, you will be forced to renew at a higher interest rate. So, by paying down debt, you are insulating yourself as best as possible against the negative effects of the recession on your outstanding debt.

The economy may or may not slip into a recession but based on what the economists believe, more likely than not, eventually, it will. Recessions can last for a long time, or they can end quickly. However, the more prepared you are, the lower your chances of suffering a prolonged financial shock in the aftermath.

You may also want to read 2 other Brandon’s Blogs:

Is Canada in recession? What if your debt is too much for you?

I hope you found this is Canada in recession Brandon’s Blog interesting. Among the many problems that can arise from having too much debt, you may also find yourself in a situation where bankruptcy seems like a realistic option.

If you are dealing with substantial debt challenges and are concerned that bankruptcy may be your only option, call me. I can provide you with debt help.

You are not to blame for your current situation. You have only been taught the old ways of dealing with financial issues, which are no longer effective.

We’re passionate about permanently solving your financial problems with you and getting you or your company out of debt. We offer innovative services and alternatives, and we’ll work with you to develop a personalized preparation for becoming debt-free which does not include bankruptcy. We are committed to helping everyone obtain the relief they need and are worthy of.

You are under a lot of pressure. We understand how uncomfortable you are. We will assess your entire situation and develop a new, custom approach that is tailored to you and your specific financial and emotional problems. We will take the burden off of your shoulders and clear away the dark cloud hanging over you. We will design a debt settlement strategy for you. We know that we can help you now.

We realize that people and businesses in financial difficulty need a workable solution. The Ira Smith Team knows that not everyone has to file for bankruptcy in Canada. Most of our clients never do, as we are familiar with alternatives to bankruptcy. We assist many people in finding the relief they need.

Call or email us. We can tailor a new debt restructuring procedure specifically for you, based on your unique economic situation and needs. If any of this sounds familiar to you and you’re serious about finding a solution, let us know.

Call us now for a no-cost consultation.

is canada in recession
is canada in recession
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IS MORTGAGE DEBT NOW THE OBSESSION FOR MANY CANADIANS?

We hope that you and your family are safe, healthy and secure during this COVID-19 pandemic.

Ira Smith Trustee & Receiver Inc. is absolutely operational and Ira, in addition to Brandon Smith, is readily available for a telephone consultation or video meeting.

Is mortgage debt surge responsible for pushing Canadian consumer debt levels higher?

For many people in Canada, a house is the centre of the family’s financial world. As a result, if the family’s financial situation changes, the house, and the mortgage that goes with it, become the focus of the family.

Is mortgage debt pressing consumer financial debt higher in Canada?

Equifax Canada recently reported that it is. One effect of the pandemic is that Canadian credit card usage and debt are dropping, as families borrow more cash right for their homes while spending less on everything else.

In this Brandon Blog, I offer some thoughts on why is mortgage debt rising, pushing total Canadian consumer debt above pre-pandemic levels, while credit card debts are falling during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Is mortgage debt surge pushing Canada consumer debt to $2.1 trillion?

Those in the real estate sector in Canada will certainly agree that the housing market is one of the greatest financial factors that influence the success of the Canadian economy. These days, the sector is exceptionally competitive which has a great influence on the housing market.

Competition among residential real estate buyers is fierce in many markets throughout the nation, especially British Columbia and Ontario. The pandemic has actually stimulated a record boom in Canada’s housing market. Low rates of interest, as well as brand-new demand for a larger home, have actually sustained bidding battles for houses.

What’s behind the record-breaking growth in the hot housing market in Canada? Is mortgage debt behind the increase in mortgage debt? Yes, according to Statistics Canada. It stated last Friday that Canadian families incurred a new high level of mortgage debt in the 2nd quarter in a row. Canadian households added record mortgage debt amid low interest, high prices.

Driving hot markets in many regions aided move real estate prices and the average sale price higher, pushing the need for home loans to $34.9 billion in the 4th quarter of 2020. This need beat the previous high of $28.7 billion in the 3rd quarter, Statistics Canada reported.

is mortgage debt
is mortgage debt

Is mortgage debt growth making Canada’s economy vulnerable? The central bank says yes

What is the Bank of Canada‘s worries? The Bank of Canada said that growing mortgage debt makes Canada’s economy vulnerable.

High household debt, as well as inequalities in the real estate market, have escalated in the past 12 months, leaving the economy more prone to economic shocks. The central bank said that although consumer debt had actually dropped in early 2020, a boost in housing debt has more than balanced out that decrease, with total household debt climbing sharply since mid-2020.

That is one reason why, effective June 1, 2021, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI, Canada’s leading financial regulatory authority, elevated the home mortgage stress test level for mortgage applications through banks, insurance companies and credit unions. It does not yet apply to private mortgages.

The stress test was raised so that borrowers must now be able to meet the financial test to carry a mortgage at an annual interest rate of either 5.25 percent or 2 points over the actual mortgage market rate they can get, whichever is greater. This will certainly make it harder for some to get approved for a home mortgage. The government hopes this will lead to reducing the pool of accepted borrowers as well as eventually, lowering residence rates.

The June 1 adjustment implies potential mortgagors will certainly need to prove that their finances can stand paying at that greater interest rate, no matter what rate a lender is willing to lend at. OSFI hopes that this adjustment will reduce either the number of buyers or the amount a purchaser can afford to pay given the mortgage financing available to them. The hope is that it will stem the higher pressure on house prices in the country.

Is mortgage debt the only reason Canadian household debt is so high?

As you can see from the above, mortgage debt is up but credit card debt is down. in fact, it is at a 6 year low. So is mortgage debt the only reason total household debt is up? When I speak of mortgage debt, I am talking about conventional mortgage debt. The answer is no.

Equifax Canada also reports that other big-ticket credit products like credit lines have likewise represented a general increase in Canadian financial debt. She said there was a 60 percent rise in house equity credit lines! Like mortgage debt, this is a secured debt registered against the borrower’s home.

People are borrowing these additional home equity lines of credit. The worry is if rates of interest rise, individuals may not be able to pay the debt servicing costs and the debt payments for that financial obligation. Those kinds of loans are usually at a variable interest rate.

is mortgage debt
is mortgage debt

My take on why is mortgage debt and other household debt driving in these directions?

It wasn’t an interest rate boost that forced Canadians to get consumer spending in check – it took a pandemic for many of us to transform our spending practices. Stay-at-home orders, lockdowns, nowhere to go and fewer places to spend our money have all contributed to what we are now seeing. Couple that with many Canadians being able to work from home and Canada’s COVID-19 Economic Response Plan.

Consumer spending shifted away from credit card spending. My personal view is that people’s spending patterns shifted away from consumer goods that normally would be charged to credit cards. Perhaps some of the increase in home equity lines of credit was to consolidate debt by borrowing against their homes to pay down high rate credit card debt.

Also, people were hunkered down working, going to school and generally living 24/7 in their homes. We all got to see the points we love about our home and perhaps noticed for the first time, or at least were bothered for the first time, with little imperfections in our homes. That could lead to increased borrowing in order to do additions or renovations.

It also could lead to selling the existing home and buying a different one and moving. Maybe that drove more demand than there was supply, which caused home prices to continue rising. Increased pricing required increased mortgage application numbers, mortgage borrowing, the individual size of mortgages to increase and drove total mortgage growth. Perhaps FOMO also contributed to the increased demand.

This is merely conjecture on my part, but one thing is for sure. The pandemic could not stop house prices from rising, mortgage debt from increasing and credit card debt from reducing. Overall, household debt increased. The worry now is if interest rates rise, it will take a larger proportion of household income to meet debt servicing requirements. Hopefully, everyone’s household budget will be able to handle it.

Is mortgage debt now the focus for many Canadians?

Apparently so. I hope that you found this Is mortgage debt now the obsession for many Canadians Brandon Blog interesting. If you are concerned because you or your business are dealing with substantial debt challenges and you assume bankruptcy is your only option, call me.

It is not your fault that you remain in this way. You have actually been only shown the old ways to try to deal with financial issues. These old ways do not work anymore.

The Ira Smith Team utilizes new modern-day ways to get you out of your debt difficulties while avoiding bankruptcy. We can get you the relief you need and so deserve. Our professional advice will create for you a personalized debt-free plan for you or your company during our no-cost initial consultation.

The tension put upon you is big. We know your discomfort factors. We will check out your entire situation and design a new approach that is as unique as you and your problems; financial and emotional. We will take the weight off of your shoulders and blow away the dark cloud hanging over you. We will design a debt settlement strategy for you. We know that we can help you now.

We understand that people and businesses facing financial issues need a realistic lifeline. There is no “one solution fits all” method with the Ira Smith Team. Not everyone has to file bankruptcy in Canada. The majority of our clients never do. We help many people and companies stay clear of bankruptcy.

That is why we can establish a new restructuring procedure for paying down debt that will be built just for you. It will be as one-of-a-kind as the economic issues and discomfort you are encountering. If any one of these seems familiar to you and you are serious about getting the solution you need to become debt-free, contact the Ira Smith Trustee & Receiver Inc. group today.

Call us now for a no-cost consultation.

We hope that you and your family are safe, healthy and secure during this COVID-19 pandemic.

Ira Smith Trustee & Receiver Inc. is absolutely operational and Ira, in addition to Brandon Smith, is readily available for a telephone consultation or video meeting.

is mortgage debt
is mortgage debt
Categories
Brandon Blog Post

DO BANK OF CANADA INTEREST RATE HIKE DATES AFFECT YOUR MONETARY POLICY?

Bank of Canada interest rate hike dates: Introduction

I have recently written blogs on debt help and signs you need bankruptcy help. I have ended recent blogs with a question: “Are you worried that the future interest rate hikes will make presently affordable commitments entirely unmanageable?”. So, I thought I would write this blog on Canada interest rate hike dates and what it all might mean in 2019.

Bank of Canada interest rate hike dates

The Bank of Canada (BoC) scheduled dates for the interest rate announcements for 2019 are as follows:

  • January 9
  • March 6
  • April 24
  • May 29
  • July 10
  • September 4
  • October 30
  • December 4

Bank of Canada interest rate hike dates: 2018

In 2018, it was expected that the BoC would raise interest rates slowly towards the end of 2018 and into 2019. The BoC has actually hiked its trendsetting rate of interest, which affects borrowing expenses across the economic climate, five times since the mid-2017, up from a reduced amount of 0.5 percent. The BoC interest rate stands at 1.75%. It was raised to that level in October 2018 and has not risen since.

Bank of Canada interest rate hike dates: 2019 issues

So the BoC on March 6, 2019, decided to keep its target for the overnight rate of 1.75%. Let me explain the main reasons why.

First, there is a slowdown in the worldwide economic climate. It has actually been extra obvious and more widespread than what they were preparing for. It is much more obvious and a lot more widespread than what the BoC was projecting as recently as January 2019! The higher adverse impact on the global economic situation affected their choice.

Second, global trade stress and unpredictability are weighing heavily on self-confidence and economic activity. There is tension worldwide on the trade front between several different scenarios, including Brexit and nations. This results in weakened consumer self-confidence and the confidence of the total worldwide economy. If the China/USA trade war is settled, the world economic scene might improve a bit.

Domestically in Canada, there are reasons they required to keep the BoC rate where it was:

  1. Exports fell short of expectations.
  2. Business investment did not reach the anticipated level.
  3. Consumer spending was weak.
  4. The housing market was soft.

Consumer spending is a big part of GDP and the cost of living in Canada. As well it has a huge influence on the Canadian economy. The Canadian real estate market is a high ticket item and there are plenty of industries that are affected by and depend upon a vibrant housing market. Each of those measures was either short of expectations or soft on its performance.

Based on both these worldwide and made in Canada influences that I have pointed out, the BoC determined they were going to keep their interest rate and not hike it. As recently as October 2018 the financial press was reporting that rates will gradually be climbing throughout 2019. Increased unpredictability is now introduced on the timing of future rate increases.

What about the rest of 2019

We might now go all of 2019 without any price rise. It depends on future occasions. I believe that there are four main variables to watch:

Core inflation continues to be near 2 percent. The Canadian consumer price index reduced to 1.4 percent in January, greatly as a result of lower oil prices. The BoC expects the cost of living index to be somewhat below the 2 percent target for the majority of 2019, reflecting the influence of short-lived variables, including the drag from reduced energy prices and a bigger output gap.

We will certainly see exactly how some of these variables may transform between now and the spring. For the July and succeeding rate statement dates, we will certainly have to see what the spring real estate market looks like. As I stated above, the real estate market is a large driver of both housing spending as well as consumer spending.

What it means for you

The reality is that the BoC overnight rate holding firm is great information if you were going to be buying a house this year. Five year fixed mortgage rates have actually declined somewhat in 2019.

If you have a variable rate home mortgage or line of credit/home equity credit line, the rate hold is likewise excellent news for you.

What about you?

Is the tension, stress, anxiety, and pain of your debt negatively influencing your health and wellness?

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bank of canada interest rate hike dates

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Brandon Blog Post

ARE HOUSE PRICES CANADA’S NEW SUCCESSFUL BIRTH CONTROL?

house prices, debt, millennials, baby boomer, housing market, Ira smith trustee

Sky high house prices are the delight of one generation and the doom of another. Baby boomers’ happiness directly correlates with the increase in house prices. They can cash out and live the retirement they dreamed of while the younger generations are handcuffed from creating the family life that they dreamed of.

The high cost of buying into the housing market is causing many couples to delay having a family. A new survey from RateSupermarket reports that:
> 56% of respondents said their ability to start or expand their family has been impacted by house prices in their region
> 72% of millennials said their ability to start or expand their family has been impacted by house prices in their region
> 52.8% of respondents said they couldn’t expand their family in their current home
> 49.4% said the costs involved have caused thesm to change their minds about the size of their family

The house prices in Toronto and Vancouver are not for the faint of heart, with the average single-family home in both cities currently above $1 million. It’s virtually impossible for a young couple to buy into the housing market today so with few options, condos are becoming more attractive to young couples and young families.

The study from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) senior economist David Macdonald estimates that:
A 20% decline in house prices across Canada would put 169,000 families under age 40 “underwater” on their mortgages. That’s one in 10 families in that age group. If prices fell 30% – in line with the maximum by which the Bank of Canada says Canadian house prices are overvalued – there would be 294,000 underwater families under 40, or one in seven

It doesn’t seem right that young couples feel that they can’t start a family because they can’t afford to buy a house. Or even worse, they chase their dreams, buy a house that they really can’t afford and land up deep in debt. If you’re struggling financially, seek professional help as soon as possible. The Ira Smith Team approaches every file with the attitude that financial problems can be solved given immediate action and the right plan. Contact us today so that Starting Over, Starting Now you can put your financial problems behind you and plan your future.

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Brandon Blog Post

FINANCIAL CRISIS IN CANADA: CAN REAL ESTATE PRICES TRIGGER ONE?

real estate, real estate bubble, residential mortgage debt, mortgage rates, debt, housing market, financial crisis in Canada, real estate seminars, household debtIn 2007 Canadians watched as the real estate bubble burst in the United States; can a financial crisis in Canada be triggered this way? We believed then and continue to believe now that a financial crisis in Canada can’t happen because Canada enjoys an extremely well regulated financial system. But, should we really be secure in this belief or will rising real estate prices trigger a financial crisis in Canada? Many analysts are concerned and for good reason:

  • 7.5% of the Canadian workforce is in the construction industry, while 7% of the Canadian economy is based on residential construction – both record highs
  • The unemployment rate rose from 6.9% to 7.2%
  • The Canadian debt-to-income ratio has soared to a record 164%, above levels experienced in the U.S. before the financial crisis

A housing bust could potentially lead to an increase in unemployment which could trigger a financial crisis in Canada. The Canadian Bankers Association reports that 70% of all household debt in Canada is made up of residential mortgage debt. According to Amna Asaf, an economist with the macro research firm Capital Economics, “Even a modest uptick in mortgage rates will translate into much higher homeownership costs, easily outpacing any expected increase in household incomes. This will price out some prospective home buyers, reinforcing the drop back in existing home sales that is already under way.” This is the same dynamic that triggered the bust of the U.S. real estate bubble in 2007. Although Canada’s strict housing regulations will likely cushion the blow to a degree, it doesn’t grant us immunity from a financial crisis in Canada.

There is a growing belief that housing is an investment that can only increase in value, which of course is fueled by a plethora of free real estate seminars and television shows dedicated to showing you how to make money with real estate – flipping properties, income properties, etc. However, making money with these types of ventures is predicated on the myth that the housing market won’t suffer a decline in value. Either a soft real estate market, or worse, a financial crisis in Canada, when you are ready to sell your house, will produce declining values of varying degrees.

Have you gotten in over your head in the housing market to the point where you could not come up with $2000 in an emergency? Ira Smith Trustee & Receiver Inc. can help with your serious debt issues. Contact us today for a consultation. We approach every file with the attitude that corporate or personal financial problems can be solved given immediate action and the right plan. Starting Over, Starting Now you can take the first step towards living a debt free life.

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