canadian consumer price index Archives - Ira SmithTrustee & Receiver Inc.

Bank of Canada interest rate hike dates: Introduction

I have recently written blogs on debt help and signs you need bankruptcy help. I have ended recent blogs with a question: “Are you worried that the future interest rate hikes will make presently affordable commitments entirely unmanageable?”. So, I thought I would write this blog on Canada interest rate hike dates and what it all might mean in 2019.

Bank of Canada interest rate hike dates

The Bank of Canada (BoC) scheduled dates for the interest rate announcements for 2019 are as follows:

January 9
March 6
April 24
May 29
July 10
September 4
October 30
December 4

Bank of Canada interest rate hike dates: 2018

In 2018, it was expected that the BoC would raise interest rates slowly towards the end of 2018 and into 2019. The BoC has actually hiked its trendsetting rate of interest, which affects borrowing expenses across the economic climate, five times since the mid-2017, up from a reduced amount of 0.5 percent. The BoC interest rate stands at 1.75%. It was raised to that level in October 2018 and has not risen since.

Bank of Canada interest rate hike dates: 2019 issues

So the BoC on March 6, 2019, decided to keep its target for the overnight rate of 1.75%. Let me explain the main reasons why.

First, there is a slowdown in the worldwide economic climate. It has actually been extra obvious and more widespread than what they were preparing for. It is much more obvious and a lot more widespread than what the BoC was projecting as recently as January 2019! The higher adverse impact on the global economic situation affected their choice.

Second, global trade stress and unpredictability are weighing heavily on self-confidence and economic activity. There is tension worldwide on the trade front between several different scenarios, including Brexit and nations. This results in weakened consumer self-confidence and the confidence of the total worldwide economy. If the China/USA trade war is settled, the world economic scene might improve a bit.

Domestically in Canada, there are reasons they required to keep the BoC rate where it was:

Exports fell short of expectations.
Business investment did not reach the anticipated level.
Consumer spending was weak.
The housing market was soft.

Consumer spending is a big part of GDP and the cost of living in Canada. As well it has a huge influence on the Canadian economy. The Canadian real estate market is a high ticket item and there are plenty of industries that are affected by and depend upon a vibrant housing market. Each of those measures was either short of expectations or soft on its performance.

Based on both these worldwide and made in Canada influences that I have pointed out, the BoC determined they were going to keep their interest rate and not hike it. As recently as October 2018 the financial press was reporting that rates will gradually be climbing throughout 2019. Increased unpredictability is now introduced on the timing of future rate increases.

What about the rest of 2019

We might now go all of 2019 without any price rise. It depends on future occasions. I believe that there are four main variables to watch:

Canadian real estate spending;
consumer spending;
the Canadian oil market; and
global trade.

Core inflation continues to be near 2 percent. The Canadian consumer price index reduced to 1.4 percent in January, greatly as a result of lower oil prices. The BoC expects the cost of living index to be somewhat below the 2 percent target for the majority of 2019, reflecting the influence of short-lived variables, including the drag from reduced energy prices and a bigger output gap.

We will certainly see exactly how some of these variables may transform between now and the spring. For the July and succeeding rate statement dates, we will certainly have to see what the spring real estate market looks like. As I stated above, the real estate market is a large driver of both housing spending as well as consumer spending.

What it means for you

The reality is that the BoC overnight rate holding firm is great information if you were going to be buying a house this year. Five year fixed mortgage rates have actually declined somewhat in 2019.

If you have a variable rate home mortgage or line of credit/home equity credit line, the rate hold is likewise excellent news for you.

What about you?

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annual cost of living 0 — annual cost of living

Annual cost of living: Introduction

We all read the headlines. The annual cost of living is rising, interest rates are rising, house prices are rising, food prices are rising, everything is rising; everything except for our paycheques. How can Canadians expect to keep up with their financial obligations when their paycheques are the only things that seem to be frozen in time?

Annual cost of living: The Canadian consumer price index

According to Statistics Canada, the consumer price index is:

“…an indicator of changes in consumer prices experienced by Canadians. It is obtained by comparing, over time, the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers.”

Statistics Canada measures the consumer price index against the year 2002. So as the base year, the 2002 consumer price index is the 100% level. The consumer price index has risen steadily every year since then. The annual average Canadian consumer price index for 2017 was 130.4%. The January 2018 Canadian consumer price index was up 1.7% as compared to January 2017. So, as you can see, up is the only direction our expenses go.

Annual cost of living: Frozen salaries breed discontent

This situation has created a great deal of dissatisfaction among employees. According to a poll conducted by Indeed (a major world-wide job hunting site):

83% of Canadians are dissatisfied with the pay they’re receiving
More than 50% of employed Canadians are definitely going to ask for a raise this year
“There’s no money in the budget” is the top reason for why requests for a raise are rejected, accounting for 63% of rejections (women hear this excuse far more often than men — 77% of the time, compared to 54% for men
The average employee plans to ask for a raise of nearly $12,000, though 23% said they wanted a raise of $16,000 or more (Indeed cautions that when asking for a raise to do your research into the current pay scales for your job)

Annual cost of living: Unemployment is down and salaries are stagnant

Even though Canada has added 423,000 jobs over the past year and the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.7% (the lowest since 1976), salaries haven’t kept up. It seems that employers have gotten away with it by hiring temporary and/or contract workers. So, while your cost of living increases, your salary doesn’t.

Annual cost of living: What happens when the rising costs force you to go deeper into debt?

We wish you luck in getting your pay raise! But, if you’re one of the many Canadians who can’t keep up with your bills now and are feeling that pain, the Ira Smith Team can help.

Debt won’t eliminate itself. You need a professional trustee who understands your pain and can explain all of your options and come up with a solid financial plan for moving forward Starting Over, Starting Now. Give us a call today and book an appointment for a free, no obligation consultation. You’ll be happy you did!