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Bankruptcy statistics: Introduction
On January 4, 2019, the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada issued its bankruptcy statistics report “Insolvency Statistics in Canada—November 2018”. Most of the headlines on this report quoted that Canadian insolvencies rose 5.2% in November 2018. While true, that headline alone could create the impression that we now have runaway bankruptcies in Canada. Nothing could be further from the truth. Let me explain.
Bankruptcy statistics: The latest numbers
Total insolvencies in November 2018 was 5.2% higher than total insolvencies in November 2017. That is what the press has quoted. However, that statistic by itself is meaningless. The complete number of insolvency filings (proposals and bankruptcies) in Canada lowered by 2.5% in November 2018 contrasted to the previous month.
For the 12-months ending November 30, 2018, total insolvencies boosted by 2.0% compared with the 12-month period ending November 30, 2017. This is a fairly modest total increase. Keep in mind that insolvencies in Canada have been at historically low levels for the last 9 years! A total annual increase of 2% from a historic low number is hardly an epidemic.
Consumer insolvencies for the 12-months ending November 30, 2018, increased by 2.0% compared to the 12-months ending November 30, 2017. Consumer personal bankruptcies were down by 5.0%, while consumer proposals were up by 8.4%. The percentage of proposals in consumer insolvencies increased to 55.7% during the 12-month period finishing November 30, 2018, up from 52.4% throughout the 12-months ending November 30, 2017. This means that over half of those Canadians who made an insolvency filing in this time period avoided bankruptcy. This is a good thing.
Business insolvencies for the 12-month period ending November 30, 2018, decreased by 0.6% compared to the 12-month period ending November 30, 2017. The industries with the largest decrease in insolvencies were mining and oil and gas. The industries with the largest increase in insolvencies were building and construction and retail.
Bankruptcy statistics: What is the real issue
The real issue is not these statistics. Rather, it is the historic high level of Canadian household debt amassed when interest rates were at near zero percent levels. Now that we are in a gradually increasing interest rate environment for the foreseeable future, not every person or company carrying high debt will be able to continue meeting their obligations and will have to resort to an insolvency proceeding.
I have written about the dangers of carrying too much debt for many years now. We are now entering the period where the rubber meets the road. Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada, feels the Canadian economy is doing sufficiently well to slowly boost rates of interest. Mr. Poloz believes to be tightening up that a bit. At the exact very same time, the latest insolvency statistics show that the marketplace now tells a story that there may be room for some actual pessimism about the Canadian economy.
Previous Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and the former Finance Minister, the late Jim Flaherty, warned the Canadian consumer to place the economy on their back and march it up a high hill. We did and it worked. This is now the outcome of it.
Bankruptcy statistics: Canadian household debt
There’s a good deal of conversation on what that suggests specifically for Canadians. It isn’t that the warnings have actually not been there for a while. The most recent statistics show that Canadian household debt is around 170 percent of disposable income. The regular Canadian owes $1.70 for every single buck of revenue made each year, after tax.
Twenty years ago, the proportion was 100%. So as you can see, there has been a stable climb in Canadians’ cravings for more financial debt. We have among the greatest financial obligation percentage of any of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development participant nations. For those carrying high debt, it is now time to buckle your seat belts as interest rates will continue to rise.
There were indications that the Canadian consumer was thinking of their budgeting. Statistics Canada previously reported that retail sales were slowing down. Now in the latest insolvency statistics, we see that retail is one of the industry sectors that had an increase in corporate insolvency filings.
With rates of interest increasing, so does the cost of borrowing and the cost of maintaining variable rate loans. Fixed rate loans that mature will need to be refinanced at higher interest rates if the loan cannot be repaid in full.
Bankruptcy statistics: Debt in a rising interest rate environment
Do you have too much debt? Does your company have too much debt and is in danger of shutting down? Are you concerned that future interest rate hikes will make currently manageable debt totally unmanageable? Are the pain and stress now negatively affecting your health?
If so, contact the Ira Smith Team today. We have decades and generations of helping people and companies in need of financial restructuring and counselling. As a licensed insolvency trustee (formerly known as a bankruptcy trustee), we are the only professionals licensed and supervised by the Federal government to provide debt settlement and financial restructuring services.
We offer a free consultation to help you solve your problems. We understand your pain that debt causes. We can also end it right away from your life. This will allow you to begin a fresh start, Starting Over Starting Now. Call the Ira Smith Team today so that we can begin helping you and get you back into a healthy, stress-free life.