Economic indicators: Introduction
Statistics Canada in March reported that the country’s average household debt-to-income ratio hit a record-high 167.3%. Economic indicators like this drive the Canadian news cycle. It puts fear into the public but doesn’t seem to concern esteemed economists. Are these economic indicators painting an exact picture of the financial state of Canadians or creating unnecessary fear?
Economic indicators: What is the debt-to-income ratio?
Debt-to-income ratio provides a snapshot of what the average Canadian family owes, versus household income. Statistics Canada determines the total value of Canadian household debt and then divides this number by the total amount of disposable income. A debt-to-income ratio of 167.3% means that households owe $167 for each dollar they generate in disposable income. If you look at this economic indicator alone you can’t help but believe that Canadians are living way beyond their means. The conclusion reached is that Canadians are walking a financial tightrope.
Economic indicators: Does the debt-to-income ratio have any value as an economic indicator?
This is true for many Canadians. However, the reality is that debt-to-income ratio doesn’t paint an exact picture of the financial state of Canadians. Although it compares debt with disposable income, not all debt creation is equal. Debt can be long-term debt like a mortgage while other debt can be for a short-term. Therefore comparing disposable income with debt can’t be exact. Debt-to-income ratio doesn’t tell the story. It is only one small piece of detailed financial situations.
The debt-to-income ratio in Canada is definitely a concern. It is also increasing, confirms Carl Lamoureux, Senior Manager, Credit Risk at National Bank of Canada. “But sometimes the media focuses on controversial measurements, without looking at the asset side of the equation for a wider view of what is going on.”
From an individual consumer perspective, calculations such as your Total Debt Servicing (TDS) ratio may be more beneficial. “When you are looking for a new loan, credit bureau information comes first and your debt-to-income ratio is only one of the things they look at,” explains Lamoureux. “Each part of a credit score provides insight into a predictability of something happening in the future, and your TDS is a solid indicator of your borrowing capacity.”
Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets Inc. has an even stronger opinion about debt-to-income ratio. “It’s probably the most useless economic indicator out there. You’re comparing two different things. That doesn’t make much sense. I’m not asking you to pay off your mortgage in one day or in one year.”
Are you concerned about the amount of debt that you’re carrying?
Although the debt-to-income ratio doesn’t tell the story, it is a stress indicator. What financial shape would you be in if:
- you lost your job?
- interest rates began to rise?
- the hot housing market began to cool?
If any of these scenarios would spell financial disaster for you, now is the time to seek out the advice of a professional trustee. Contact Ira Smith Trustee & Receiver Inc. Our commitment to you is to bring value added solutions that fit your unique issues and circumstances. Clients appreciate our knowledge and our ingenuity, the value we deliver, and our speed in responding and taking action.
Make an appointment for a free, no obligation consultation today. You’ll be on your way to conquering debt Starting Over, Starting Now.