As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, we hope that you, your family, and your friends are safe, healthy, and secure. Ira Smith Trustee & Receiver Inc. is fullynt operational, and both Ira and Brandon Smith are readily available for phone or video consultations.
Interest rate hike in Canada: Introduction
The Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem, announced on December 15, 2021, that the slack in the economy caused by the Coronavirus pandemic has substantially decreased. It is a clear indication that the central bank will begin an interest rate hike in Canada process in 2022. In addition, he said the central bank was concerned about the rate of inflation, which was at an 18-year high of 4.7% and well above its control range of 1-3%.
Here is a Brandon Blog about why at least one interest rate hike in Canada is likely in 2022 and what that means.
Interest rate hike in Canada: Canadian borrowers prepare as U.S. central bank warns of 3 rate increases in 2022
The U.S. central bank will now direct its attention to battling inflation. As it slows down its bond-buying, the Federal Reserve may raise rates as soon as April 2022. U.S. central bank forced to end stimulus due to job creation, expanding economy, and soaring inflation.
Fed says it will end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March, signalling it has met its inflation target. Federal Reserve rate increases are inevitable for Canadian borrowers. In the event that the Federal Reserve was to wind down stimulus faster and hike rates more rapidly, rising rates would have a greater impact on the Canadian economy. Governor Macklem will be free to act without fear of damaging Canadian exports if the Fed decides to increase interest rates.
Inflation is too hot right now. That’s the message from both the US and Canada central bankers.
Interest rate hike in Canada: Higher interest rates are coming. Omicron is unlikely to change that
At the beginning of the pandemic, the Bank of Canada reduced its benchmark interest rate to the current low level of 0.25 percent. Generally, a central bank will elevate its benchmark interest rate to cool down an overheated economy and control inflation. To stimulate a cold economy, it will decrease the rate of interest, which will encourage individuals as well as companies to borrow and spend.
To bring inflation under control, various economists predict that the Bank of Canada will need to raise interest rates in 2022. The argument is that monetary policy is the best way to deal with permanent, sustained inflation. According to them, a series of rate increases is needed to deal with it. As the federal government has suggested, recent inflation acceleration won’t be transitory.
In spite of the current outbreak of the Omicron variant, economic data from as recently as December shows the economy continues to outperform.
Interest rate hike in Canada: No need to hike benchmark interest rate just yet, Bank of Canada says
It is now difficult to find a senior economist that believes interest rates won’t rise to bring ongoing inflation under control by the end of 2022. Despite repeated attempts from the Canadian Government, the public isn’t convinced that Canadian inflation is minimal.
Canada’s central bank is the Bank of Canada, a crown corporation. Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is used to make Bank of Canada decisions. With the inflation-control target introduced in 1991, the ideal range for annual inflation is 1% – 3%, with the midpoint of 2% as the common target rate.
The Bank of Canada now says that the labour market slack has been absorbed significantly. It says the interest rate will remain at record lows until the economic slack is sustainably abated, which is currently forecast for the middle quarters of 2022.
Until Q2 or Q3 of 2022, the Bank of Canada expects its policy interest rate to remain at 0.25%. Until the second half of 2022, CPI inflation is also forecasted to remain above 2%. Currently, the Bank of Canada is keeping its policy interest rate unchanged. Eventually, economic levers currently being used, such as quantitative easing, will no longer be enough.
Interest rate hike in Canada: Rate hikes don’t fix bottlenecks and can hurt Canadians
Current inflationary pressures are due to supply chain disruptions, pandemic-related supply bottlenecks and energy prices. Hopefully, the economy will be more healed in the second half of 2022 before central bankers hike rates.
Considering the amount of outstanding debt, Governor Macklem should be careful not to raise borrowing costs too quickly or too much. If the Bank of Canada waits too long to begin an interest-rate increase, the rate hikes will have to be more dramatic, and Canadians aren’t ready for dramatic increases.
As the market rates are already preparing for a higher rate outcome, the average Canadian doesn’t need to prepare for the level of interest rates itself. Canadians will be affected by the pace of rate increases, in my opinion.
The current low-interest rates are designed to help borrowers weather the pandemic caused economic storm. In addition, since the outbreak of the pandemic, real estate prices have risen significantly, possibly creating a housing bubble in Canada. The Bank of Canada and the government are under pressure to lower stimulus because of asset bubbles in real estate and other assets.
Interest rate hike in Canada: How Will Higher Interest Rates Affect Me?
As a result of supply constraints resulting from Coronavirus-related events, low-interest rates will eventually end due to inflation. Meanwhile, there are concerns about another strain of this pandemic causing more economic damage. With no indication that the pandemic will ease any time soon, the Bank of Canada is inclined to gradually raise rates to avoid shockwaves reverberating throughout the entire economy.
Some Canadians may be affected by higher interest rates. In the long run, the Bank of Canada will have to make every effort to maintain a stable economy.
As Canadians struggle to get back to normal, they are concerned about the impact of a rate hike. A higher interest rate could lead to less consumer spending and job losses, according to some economists. Variable-rate mortgage debt holders will have higher interest costs. The same goes for those with fixed-rate debt, such as mortgage debt, whose term is set to expire. They are concerned about having to renew their mortgage debt at a higher interest rate. Business borrowings with a variable interest rate pegged to the financial institution’s prime rate will also cost more.
The one thing we know for sure is that many Canadians are concerned about the future and what changes in interest rates may mean for them. Nonetheless, the Bank of Canada will not raise interest rates overnight. It typically takes the central bank several months to set interest rates.
Whenever the Bank of Canada decides to raise rates, it will carefully consider how it will affect different groups of Canadians, such as those with mortgages and those without homes. In the case of mortgage holders, the Bank of Canada wants to ensure that they can afford their mortgages when interest rates rise.
In order to maintain the economic recovery, the Bank of Canada must manage the risks associated with rising interest rates.
Interest rate hike in Canada: Summary
I hope you found this interest rate hike in Canada Brandon Blog informative. Although nothing is guaranteed, managing your debt in a way that will allow you to be able to afford it, even if there is an interest rate hike in Canada, will lead to your financial success. It will also give you the best shot at having a financially stress-free life.
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As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, we hope that you, your family, and your friends are safe, healthy, and secure. Ira Smith Trustee & Receiver Inc. is fully operational, and both Ira and Brandon Smith are readily available for phone or video consultations.
