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2017 economic outlook: Introduction
The precious metals advisory firm Illuminati Silver, discussed the implications of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) Report and its views on what it will mean for the 2017 economic outlook. The following is their analysis. Illuminati believes that emerging markets may actually help the world economy in 2017. The IMF believes that the emerging markets may be about to undergo a surprisingly rapid economic rebound.
2017 economic outlook: A brief 2016 review
The beginning of 2016 was fraught for global currency and commodity markets, with the oil price slumping towards $25 a barrel and a raft of emerging market currencies hit by the start of US monetary tightening. The resulting dip in global equity markets in the beginning of 2016 because of growing concerns over China’s economic slowdown.
However, there was a significant turnaround in investor sentiment, with global equity markets rallying to their pre-2016 highs and the oil price bouncing back to around $50 a barrel. Capital inflows into emerging markets resumed in 2016, following two years of outflows, and the stage may now be set for greater macroeconomic, currency and commodity stability, which could propel global growth, to 4% in 2017 (the highest level since 2010).
2017 economic outlook: What the IMF says about 2017
In its report the IMF stated that politics were weighing on the US and European economies, with uncertainty about the US Presidential election “contributing to a lag in investment.” In 2017, the IMF expects emerging economies to grow 4.6%. China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is forecast to expand 6.2% in 2017, which is slightly down but still significant.
Growth in emerging Asia, and especially India, continues to be resilient. India’s gross domestic product may expand 7.6% this year and next year, the fastest pace among the world’s major economies. If the IMF is correct and Europe and the UK are not too adversely affected post BREXIT short-term, this level of growth may be just enough to maintain things as they are and not allow world economies to dip any further into recession. This should mean as a result, the demand for gold and especially silver should remain robust into 2017 as industrial usage consolidates and begins to increase.
2017 economic outlook: What if the IMF is wrong?
Of course the IMF could be wrong and growth rates prove no-where near as high as it forecasts. However, some interesting words from the IMF’s chief economist, Maurice Obstfeld prove interesting: “By using monetary, fiscal, and structural policies in concert—within countries, consistent over time, and across countries—the whole can be greater than the sum of its parts,” In other words he is both suggesting and perhaps hinting that; world leaders, central banks and industries may work to some degree in concert with one another to make sure a soft landing occurs.
Of course none of us know whether they will be successful, however, despite the doom and gloom by people predicting global economic collapse since even before 2008, we have not experienced it on the scale they have forecast.
2017 economic outlook: Does your personal economic trend need fixing?
What is your personal economic 2017 forecast? Will you have enough income growth to meet your expenses and pay down debt? Or, will you still have too much debt that is causing stress in your life?
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